Massie’s Defeat and Rabb’s Win Show Two Parties Moving in Opposite Directions
Republicans are narrowing around Trump loyalty while Democratic voters reach left.
The primary elections of May 19 tell a story about the direction of both the Democratic and Republican Parties, along with a signal of what’s to come. Two races in safe red and blue districts serve as key markers as we head toward the midterm elections in November.
The stunning ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by President Donald Trump-backed Ed Gallrein is further evidence of GOP contraction as Trump tightens his grip. Massie repeatedly demonstrated independence from the vengeful president and maintained unusual cross-party alliances, including personal friendship with Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California’s 17th congressional district. Massie opposed Trump on a host of issues, including the Epstein files disclosures, Iran war, and support for Israel.
More than $32 million in ad dollars made this race the most expensive congressional primary in United States history. An Al Jazeera analysis of FEC data found that $15.5 million of that spending came from three PACs linked to pro-Israel donors.
While pro-Israel interests have held onto the Republican Party for today, warning signs are flashing in the GOP as isolationist voters look at their own wallets and wonder why money is flowing outward from the nation into conflicts and nations they view as unconnected to their own interests.
Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, has never held elected office. His campaign materials, which include phrases like “End the Woke Agenda,” function as a shrine to Trump. “This is Trump Country. It’s time we had a Congressman who acts like it,” a section of his website reads.
The Trump candidate was rewarded for his fealty and will be headed to Congress.
As the GOP continues to consolidate into something between a personal party of the sitting president and a purchasable entity by major super PACs, a populist revolt continues in the Democratic Party.
Democratic socialist Chris Rabb won the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 3rd congressional district. Rabb had broad support from the American Left, including Squad members, Philadelphia DSA, the Working Families Party, and activist groups.
In rhetoric that might have seemed stunning just a few years ago from a candidate who also held endorsements from mainstream elected officials, organizations and even The Philadelphia Inquirer, Rabb’s foreign policy platform reads in part:
“American leadership for too long has been defined by the violent impact we have on other nations. We must immediately dismantle the military industrial complex, cease all imperialist foreign policy, and end all U.S. led efforts for regime-change.
We must stop funding violations of human rights. The genocide in Gaza must end. The genocide in the Sudan must end. Every person deserves to be safe, no matter where their home is. Every state’s right to exist obligates it to extend equal rights to all people.”
Rabb’s win is yet another example of how the pro-Israel consensus on the Democratic side has collapsed amid the Gaza genocide and is unlikely to rebound. However, the sentiment that animates this collapse is rooted in broader value shifts: a growing sense of global community among Democratic voters, who have become more ardently anti-war across the board, more concerned about global human rights and more aware of how systems of power impact their own daily lives.
As the Democratic result demonstrates organic realignment among the party’s own base, the Republican result demonstrates personal fealty to the president’s cult of personality without a clear path toward long-term success under a democratic system.
The president himself is remarkably unpopular, Democrats are favored in the generic ballot for this midterm cycle (despite gerrymandering), and it seems increasingly clear that the Republican Party’s plan for continued success is directly tied to eroding the democratic system further and further to ensure disapproval cannot interrupt its own rule.
It remains to be seen whether an angry public will comply. The movement within the Democratic Party suggests it may not.